Exhibit TM_MUT_65_E9C1D8EE · Nepal Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)

Climate Evaluation

A prior promise disappears.

Dropped commitmentConfidence: Very likely

Nepal will pilot a sub-national project on REDD+ to reduce about 14 million tons of CO2-eq by 2020 by addressing the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation

The total greenhouse gas emissions reduction from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector will be 2,472.94 Gg carbon dioxide eq by 2035

The agriculture, forestry, and land-use sector's emissions reduction target was drastically scaled back, shifting from a regional pilot goal of 14,000 gigagrams by 2020 to a nationwide target of just 2,472.94 gigagrams by 2035.

2016

"Nepal will pilot a sub-national project on REDD+ to reduce about 14 million tons of CO2-eq by 2020 by addressing the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation"

2025· candidate

"The total greenhouse gas emissions reduction from the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector will be 2,472.94 Gg carbon dioxide eq by 2035"

2016

2025

Mutation ReasoningThe claim has drifted from a specific, high-volume sub-national pilot project target for 2020 to a broader, lower-volume national sectoral target for 2035. While the underlying policy goal (AFOLU emissions reduction) remains consistent, the parameters (scope, timeline, and magnitude) have shifted significantly, indicating a change in policy framing or measurement methodology rather than a direct contradiction or simple amplification.

Intelligence Provenance Ledger

PACIA Job ID:9380dcb9-a96e-46a8-8b3f-f95903679e65Target Entity:Nepal Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)Base Anchor:fuseki:entity:nepalCandidate Hash:urn:uuid:9380dcb9-a96e-46a8-8b3f-f95903679e65Retrieval Date:2026-07-01 (Automated pipeline)

This record maps to the agent consensus transcript and scatter-gather execution logs. Review tracing methodology.

Climate Evaluation

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